Research on Coupling Mechanisms of Risk Factors for Collision Accidents Between Merchant Ships and Fishing Vessels Based on the N-K Model

Preventing collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels has long been a significant challenge for maritime safety in coastal waters. To quantitatively analyze the relationship between the risk factors contributing to these collisions, identify the key factors leading to such accidents, and develop effective prevention strategies, the N-K model was employed to examine the risk coupling mechanisms involved. The model was based on an analysis of 132 collision incidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels in China’s coastal waters from 2013 to 2023. The characteristics of these collision accidents were investigated, and the risk factors were categorized into four distinct types: human, management, environmental, and ship factors. The coupling of collision risk factors between merchant ships and fishing vessels was mainly considered from the perspective of the overall system, and the N-K model was used to calculate the probability and risk values associated with the coupling of these four risk factors. Modeling results indicated that the coupling value of four factors was 0.1083, which was 1.5 times greater than the maximum coupling value of three factors and 2.1 times greater than the maximum coupling value of two factors. The risk of collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels increases gradually with an increase in the risk coupling factors. Among the four categories of factors, the risk coupling between the ship factors and environmental factors is associated with a relatively large probability of accidents. Appropriate countermeasures were proposed to implement effective preventive measures at the source of collision accidents.