An Empirical Analysis of Global Soybean Supply Potential and China’s Diversified Import Strategies Based on Global Agro-Ecological Zones and Multi-Objective Nonlinear Programming Models

Soybeans play a crucial role in global food security and international agricultural trade. As the world’s largest consumer and trader of soybeans, China faces significant external dependence on supply and concentration of import sources. In light of increasing uncertainties in the international political and economic landscape, risks within China’s soybean supply chain have become increasingly prominent, highlighting the need to explore the global soybean supply potential and optimize import strategies. In response to national food security strategic requirements and anticipated changes in global production capacity, the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model and the multi-objective nonlinear programming model are used in this paper to estimate the potential of soybean yield increase globally. From dual perspectives of risk minimization and cost minimization, diversified soybean import schemes for China are proposed across three scopes: neighboring countries, countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and globally. The results indicate that in the long term, the center of gravity for global soybean production capacity remains in the Americas; these areas, along with Europe and Africa, are key regions for China to expand its soybean import sources in the future. If all countries’ soybean production potentials are fully explored, China can achieve sufficient soybean supply by relying on neighboring countries as well as those countries participating in the BRI. Specifically, it is estimated that during the 2020s (2011–2040), the potential soybean production in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina could reach more than 290 million tons, 140 million tons, and 130 million tons, respectively, under scenarios of both yield increase and cultivated land expansion. Neighboring countries such as India and Russia also show significant potential, with India’s production potentially increasing by 42.8 million tons and Russia’s by 10.4 million tons. The results suggest that China can achieve a more balanced and secure import strategy by leveraging the production capabilities of countries in the Americas, Europe, and Africa while also fostering closer economic and agricultural cooperation with neighboring nations and BRI countries. Based on these findings, policy recommendations aimed at stabilizing and ensuring China’s soybean supply are discussed.