From Optimism to Risk: The Impact of Climate Change on Temperature Sums in Central Europe

This study examines the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, focusing on temperature sums influencing the growing season. Using meteorological data from 2001 to 2020, the research analyses the onset and termination of temperatures ≥5 °C (growing season). Temperature sums for two periods (2001–2010, 2011–2020) were calculated and future temperature projections under three scenarios (+1.5 °C, +2.6 °C, +3.6 °C) were developed. Results indicate regional variation in temperature sums, with 69% of the area falling in the 2900–3100 °C range, and Poland showing the highest percentage (81%). In the second decade of the 21st century, temperature sums shifted to the 3100–3300 °C range, affecting 63% of the region. The projections indicate a substantial increase in temperature sums, with the most optimistic scenario (+1.5 °C) leading to the dominance of the 3700–3900 °C range. The warmest areas (West Pannonian Basin), show a temperature sum of 4900–5100 °C. The comparison of predicted and observed temperature sums for 2011–2020 shows a minimal error (±3% in Slovakia and ±4% in Poland and the Czech Republic), confirming the projections. These findings highlight the importance of adaptive strategies in agriculture, particularly fruit farming, to mitigate the climate change effects.