Australian agency and the China–US contest for supremacy

This article revisits the widely held assumption that small and middle powers lose substantial agency during periods of strategic competition and hegemonic (re)ordering. Focusing on Australia’s foreign policy over the past decade and a half, it also challenges the prevailing narrative that Canberra has resigned itself to the role of a ‘Dependent Ally’ of the United States amidst intensifying Sino-American rivalry. Instead, the article finds evidence of significant agency, as Australia has resisted and, in some cases, shaped signature coalition-building initiatives advanced by both powers, including the Obama administration’s pivot/rebalance to Asia, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the US-led Quad 2.0 and AUKUS. Drawing on Australia’s three dominant foreign policy traditions − the ‘Dependent Ally,’ ‘Middle Power,’ and ‘Pragmatic’ schools of thought − the article argues that Australia has consistently incorporated all three traditions rather than simply relying upon the supposedly dominant ‘Dependent Ally’ approach. Through this lens, Australia emerges not as a passive actor at the mercy of external powers but as a strategically-significant player capable of influencing the evolving regional order. Such findings challenge prevailing assumptions about Australian foreign policy and broader middle power behaviour.