Risk Assessment Method for Power Distribution Systems Based on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Typhoon Disaster Chain

In recent years, power outages due to typhoon-induced rainstorms, waterlogging, and other extreme weather events have become increasingly common, and accurately assessing the risk of damage to the distribution system during a disaster is critical to enhancing the resilience of the power system. Therefore, a risk assessment method for power distribution systems considering the spatiotemporal characteristics of the typhoon disaster chain is proposed. The mechanism of forming the typhoon disaster chain is first analyzed and its spatiotemporal characteristics are modeled. Secondly, the failure probability of the distribution system equipment during the evolution process of the disaster chain is modeled. Then, the non-sequential Monte Carlo state sampling method combined with the distribution system risk assessment index is proposed to establish the disaster risk assessment system of the distribution system. Finally, based on the IEEE 33-bus power system, the proposed distribution system disaster risk assessment method is verified. Simulation solutions show that the proposed assessment method can effectively assess the disaster risk of the distribution system under the influence of the typhoon disaster chain. The simulation results show that at the time step of typhoon landfall, the load shedding reaches 1315.3 kW with a load shedding rate of 35.4%. The total economic loss at the time step is 2,289,200 CNY. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in assessing disaster risks and improving the resilience of power systems during typhoon events.