What family policies do Iranian couples prefer for childbearing? Evidence from a discrete choice experiment

In response to the unprecedented decline in birth rates in Iran, a range of incentives has been introduced to encourage higher fertility among couples. This study aims to elicit Iranian families' preferences regarding proposed childbearing incentives through a discrete choice experiment. Data were collected in 2023 from a sample of 1,687 respondents. Five key attributes-economic, social, employment, healthcare, and cultural-recreational attributes-were identified through a systematic scoping review, 16 individual interviews, a focus group discussion, and a consensus development process. Utilizing an orthogonal design in SPSS software, 48 scenarios were initially generated, which were subsequently reduced to 24 choice sets for the final analysis. Preferences were analyzed using a conditional logit regression model in STATA17. The findings reveal significant preferences for incentives such as "provision of housing or government land," "full coverage of prenatal diagnostic services," "allocation of livelihood baskets," and "extended maternity leave." In contrast, the "allocation of stock shares" was the least preferred economic incentive (P < 0.0001, β = -0.3958). Notably, childbearing preferences varied between rural and urban respondents. Rural families prioritized support for home-based businesses and housewives, while urban families showed a stronger preference for housing and land-related incentives. This study provides valuable insights into the factors shaping childbearing preferences in Iran and offers important implications for policymakers. By considering the socio-economic and political context of the country, targeted policies can be designed to effectively encourage higher fertility and address the challenges posed by the declining birth rate.