The Political Economy of Japan’s Development Assistance to Africa: An Empirical Test of the Origin of TICAD

A long-standing and influential view in foreign aid policy is that donor countries often utilize aid allocation strategically to advance their diplomatic interests and geopolitical agendas. We revisit this hypothesis by examining Japan’s development assistance to Africa and its strategic implications for diplomatic influence. Leveraging historical data on development assistance and an interrupted time series framework, the analysis investigates whether Japan strategically aligns its aid allocation with the voting preferences of African recipient nations, particularly in its pursuit of a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The findings reveal a significant increase in Japan’s bilateral assistance to African countries during precise alignments of the Tokyo International Conference on African Development events with its non-permanent membership terms on the UNSC. This strategic correlation underscores the intertwined nature of economic and political interests in Japan’s foreign policy agenda, highlighting the role of development assistance in advancing diplomatic objectives. We offer valuable insights into the motivations behind the establishment of the Tokyo International Conference on African Development, illuminating Japan’s approach to development assistance and its diplomatic objectives.