Spatial Effects of New Quality Productivity on the Low-Carbon Transformation of Energy Consumption Structure—Evidence from Provincial Data in China

The low-carbon transformation of an energy consumption structure (ECS) is related to the sustainable development of society. New quality productivity (NQP) is an important means to promote the green transformation of an ECS. This paper examines the spatiotemporal evolution of NQP development and low-carbon transformation of an ECS, utilizing panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2012–2020) through kernel density estimation and spatial analysis methods. The impact of NQP development on the ECS and its spatial spillover effects are empirically analyzed using a two-way fixed-effects model and a spatial Durbin model. The study reveals that NQP development in China is generally positively correlated with ECS, although significant regional disparities exist. A significant positive spatial correlation exists between NQP and ECS. NQP development significantly promotes the transformation of local ECS but exerts a negative spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions. Further analysis reveals that NQP exhibits an “inverted U-shaped” impact on the spatial spillover effects of local ECS. Spatial attenuation analysis indicates that the negative spillover effects of NQP on ECS diminish with geographical distance, with a maximum attenuation boundary of 600 km. The study found that China is currently facing significant regional development imbalances. Promoting the balanced development of NQP is crucial for achieving high-quality and sustainable development.