GEOGRAFÍA ELECTORAL COSTARRICENSE: ANÁLISIS CONTRAFACTUAL DE POSIBLES EFECTOS DE DIVISIONES PROVINCIALES ALTERNATIVAS EN LA REPRESENTACIÓN POLÍTICA LEGISLATIVA (2002-2022)

A fundamental theme of electoral geography is the study of changes in spatial access to the legislative power resulting from variations in electoral constituencies, which is rarely reflected upon in Costa Rica. Through counterfactual analysis, we seek to understand how access to Congress by political parties in Costa Rica between 2002-2022 could have manifested had there been nine provinces instead of the existing seven. The results show that this scenario would have led to an increase in the political power of the two major parties, lesser representation for those with intermediate support, and preservation of minority parties. Additionally, the weight of peripheral provinces in legislative elections would have increased particularly since 2018, to the detriment of central regions. The study prompts reflection that the creation of new electoral constituencies would lead to a reconsideration of the ways in which political parties would approach different areas of the country in pursuit of legislative seats.