Strategic approach of predicting and mapping plastic waste flows: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) case study

Plastic waste management is a growing concern in the UAE, where it accounts for 24 % of the total municipal solid waste which is nearly double the average recorded in other high-income nations. This study utilizes the Waste Flow Diagram (WFD) Tool to assess both current and projected plastic waste flows in the UAE, predicting their final fate. In 2021, approximately 3.2 million tonnes of plastic waste were generated, with only 7 % recycled, 90 % sent to landfills, and the rest mismanaged. Under a business-as-usual scenario, plastic waste generation is forecasted to reach 2.5, 3.7 and 5.4 million tonnes by 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively, with 48–65 % ending up in landfills. Even in an optimistic scenario, 11–32 % of plastic waste would still be diverted to landfills. The study also estimates the GHG emissions from plastic waste, revealing that it could potentially represent 70 % of the UAE's 2050 waste emission target. Additionally, the potential market value and energy recovery possible from diverting landfilled or leaked plastic waste are highlighted. The findings provide essential insights for policymakers and industry practitioners to assess the effectiveness of planned mitigation strategies in addressing plastic waste management in the UAE.