Assessing Future Changes in Mean Radiant Temperature: Considering Climate Change and Urban Development Impacts in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, by 2050

Urban development and climate change are two main impacting factors in the thermal environment of cities. This study aims to analyze future changes in Mean Radiant Temperature (MRT), one of the main contributors to human thermal comfort and the concept of Urban Heat Island (UHI), considering climate change and urban development scenarios in the study area, Fredericton, New Brunswick, by 2050. The analysis utilizes the SOLWEIG (Solar and Longwave Environmental Irradiance Geometry) model from the Urban Multi-scale Environmental Predictor (UMEP) platform to calculate MRT values. By integrating these two impacting factors, this research provides insights into the potential future changes in MRT levels and the resulting thermal conditions and geohazards in the study area. The analysis enables the identification of areas susceptible to increased radiant heat exchange due to the proposed changes in land cover, urban morphology, and air temperature. Furthermore, this study contributes to a better understanding of the complex interactions between climate change, urbanization, and urban microclimates. By incorporating MRT assessments and prioritizing thermal comfort, cities can develop strategies to mitigate the negative effects of UHI and create sustainable and livable urban environments for future generations.