Energy production forecast for the purpose of a technical virtual power plant

This paper outlines a comprehensive project aimed for energy management within the facilities of the Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje (UKIM) through the design of a Virtual Power Plant (VPP). So far, there has been no unified standard for a VPP operation. The VPP concept involves integrating distributed energy sources, electricity storage systems and VPP management system. An analysis of datasets for: i) electricity consumption at UKIM facilities, ii) online data from „photovoltaic geographical information system“ for solar radiation in Skopje, and iii) electricity production of photovoltaics (PVs) placed on the roof of one faculty, were carried out. Furthermore, a statistical time series forecasting approach using measured histori cal data (ARIMA) was employed to predict energy production from PV systems intended for installation on other university facilities. Additionally, this paper proposes an approach for forecasting energy production from photovoltaic systems within the VPP framework, contributing to the advancement of sustainable energy management practices in academic institutions.