Chaotic Dynamics and Key Drivers in the Evolution of Tibetan Village Systems: A Case Study in Western Sichuan

This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of Tibetan villages in western Sichuan through state transition models and predictive simulations to understand their complex dynamics and key driving factors. Using a combination of multivariate time-series analysis and chaotic attractor identification, the research identifies forest cover, economic growth, employment rates, road density, and communication network coverage as critical determinants of village trajectories. For instance, Molo Village recovers rapidly with a 10% increase in regional economic growth, while Xisuo Village becomes unstable with employment rate fluctuations above 2%. Shenzuo Village benefits from improved road density, and Minzu Village’s stability depends on forest cover. Jiangba Village relies on the growth of irrigated farmland and communication network coverage, whereas Kegeyi Village exhibits periodic dynamics and high sensitivity to employment variations. The findings underscore the inherent complexity and nonlinearity of rural systems, revealed through chaotic attractor analysis, which highlights the system’s sensitivity to initial conditions and external shocks. The article provides actionable insights into resilience mechanisms and offers practical recommendations for the sustainable development of culturally and ecologically sensitive regions. Emphasis on tailored management strategies is essential to meet the challenges faced by these unique systems in the face of modernization and environmental change.