The Threat of a Perfect Storm and its Expected Consequences for the Global and National Economy

In recent years, the global market has been increasingly alarmed by signals of an impending global fi nancial crisis, on the one hand. On the other hand, many researchers consider this concern to be unfounded, since the last fi nancial crisis occurred relatively recently — in 2020, and, therefore, the time of the next fi nancial crisis has not yet arrived. These contradictions, taking into account the scale of the probable consequences of the global fi nancial crisis if it occurs in the near future, predetermined the choice of the research topic, which seems extremely relevant. The purpose of the presented studies is an in-depth analysis of the emergence of a global economic crisis of a fi nancial nature in the near future and its expected consequences for the global and national economies. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the proof that due to the multiplicity of time intervals of small cycles of economic activity of K. Zhuglyar (about 10 years) and large cycles of N. Kondratiev (about 50 years), and also taking into account that the crisis phase in the cycles of N. Kondratiev, according to the fi ve-phase model, is also about 10 years, refl ecting the regularity that every fi fth fi nancial crisis, realized within the framework of the cycles of economic activity of K. Zhuglyar, falls on a technological crisis arising within the framework of N. Kondratiev cycles, the expected world economic crisis of a financial nature should be considered as part of a crisis of a technological nature, caused by the replacement of the fifth technological structure by the sixth, by analogy with the U-shaped recession in the USA and the Secondary banking crisis in Great Britain in 1973–1975, within the framework of a technological crisis of the replacement of the fourth technological structure by the fi fth, and the stock market crash 1929, which marked the beginning of the Great Depression within the framework of the technological crisis, characterizing the replacement of the third technological order by the fourth. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use in developing measures aimed at localizing the expected global economic crisis of a fi nancial nature on the national economy.