FISCAL STRATEGY OF UKRAINE UNDER GEOPOLITICAL CHANGES AND MARTIAL LAW

Introduction. The relevance of the study is determined by the necessity to adapt fiscal policy to emerging challenges, including an increasing budget deficit, rising debt burden, and a shrinking tax base. Methods. The study employs a comprehensive approach that includes a systemic analysis of macroeconomic indicators (GDP, debt burden, budget expenditure structure, and shadow economy levels), SWOT analysis to assess the strengths and weaknesses of fiscal policy, and a comparative analysis of the impact of crises on public finances. Empirical evaluation of key fiscal indicators is based on statistical data from the National Bank of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Statistics Service. Results. The study reveals a shift in government spending priorities towards defense and social protection, leading to a decline in capital investments and heightened budgetary risks. A high level of shadow economy activity and reduced tax revenues exacerbate financial instability. The necessity for fiscal policy reform was substantiated, with a focus on economic de-shadowing, debt burden optimization, and budget resource redistribution towards long-term investments in critical infrastructure and innovative industries. Discussion. Further research should focus on developing effective mechanisms to reduce debt dependency, implementing program-targeted financing, and analysing the impact of international financial assistance on Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability. Special attention should be given to the digitalization of tax administration and mechanisms for stimulating national production as key drivers of sustainable economic development. Keywords: fiscal strategy, budget policy, public debt, macroeconomic stability, tax base, shadow economy, public expenditures.