MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF PREDATOR-MEDIATED EFFECTS ON THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF HEMORRHAGIC FEVER WITH RENAL SYNDROME

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome is a zoonotic disease transmitted by infection from contact with rodents containing hantaviruses. It is one of the most serious diseases affecting human health, and China accounts for more than half of the world’s annual cases. In this paper, we have modeled the transmission of renal syndrome hemorrhagic fever in a predator–rodent–environment–human integrative model based on other scholars. We give the basic reproduction number of the model and show it is a threshold for the stability of the equilibrium of the model. Then we discuss the optimal control problem of the model, focusing on three control strategies over time for rodents (rats), humans, and the environment. Finally, MCMC is used to perform numerical simulations based on real data and to explore the effects of predators on disease.