Probability weighting functions and heavy tailed returns

• Probability weighting transforms finite-variance distributions into heavy-tailed stable ones. • A rescaled Normal characteristic function becomes a Cauchy distribution under this weighting. • Modified binomial models converge to symmetric stable distributions. • The framework links behavioral biases with misperceived market risks. Heavy tailed distributions are characteristic of financial returns. Building on behavioral economic models and, in particular, on Dombi’s modifier operator, we show that applying probability weighting on symmetric distributions with finite moments transforms them into heavy-tailed stable distributions. Our approach highlights that when the generator is chosen as f ( x ) = − ln x , the Dombi modifier operator exactly reproduces Prelec’s function-and, as demonstrated in Dombi and Jónás (2020), Prelec’s function also arises as the limit of the epsilon weighting function. These findings provide microfoundations linking behavioral probability distortions with observed return distributions.

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Publication Details

Journal
Finance Research Open
Published
2025-02-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finr.2025.100003
Primary Topic
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Probability weighting functions and heavy tailed returns

Adriel Wáng
Finance Research Open
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
article

Probability weighting functions and heavy tailed returns

Adriel Wáng
article en

Abstract

• Probability weighting transforms finite-variance distributions into heavy-tailed stable ones. • A rescaled Normal characteristic function becomes a Cauchy distribution under this weighting. • Modified binomial models converge to symmetric stable distributions. • The framework links behavioral biases with misperceived market risks. Heavy tailed distributions are characteristic of financial returns. Building on behavioral economic models and, in particular, on Dombi’s modifier operator, we show that applying probability weighting on symmetric distributions with finite moments transforms them into heavy-tailed stable distributions. Our approach highlights that when the generator is chosen as f ( x ) = − ln x , the Dombi modifier operator exactly reproduces Prelec’s function-and, as demonstrated in Dombi and Jónás (2020), Prelec’s function also arises as the limit of the epsilon weighting function. These findings provide microfoundations linking behavioral probability distortions with observed return distributions.

Finance Research OpenVol. 1(2)
Openalex Percentile: Top 95%
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
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