Early detection of feline chronic kidney disease via 3-hydroxykynurenine and machine learning

Feline chronic kidney disease (CKD) is one of the most frequently encountered diseases in veterinary practice, and the leading cause of mortality in cats over five years of age. While diagnosing advanced CKD is straightforward, current routine tests fail to diagnose early CKD. Therefore, this study aimed to identify early metabolic biomarkers. First, cats were retrospectively divided into two populations to conduct a case-control study, comparing the urinary and serum metabolome of healthy (n = 61) and CKD IRIS stage 2 cats (CKD2, n = 63). Subsequently, longitudinal validation was conducted in an independent population comprising healthy cats that remained healthy (n = 26) and cats that developed CKD2 (n = 22) within one year. Univariate, multivariate, and machine learning-based (ML) approaches were compared. The serum-to-urine ratio of 3-hydroxykynurenine was identified as a single biomarker candidate, yielding a high AUC (0.844) and accuracy (0.804), while linear support vector machine-based modelling employing metabolites and clinical parameters enhanced AUC (0.929) and accuracy (0.862) six months before traditional diagnosis. Furthermore, analysis of variable importance indicated consistent key serum metabolites, namely creatinine, SDMA, 2-hydroxyethanesulfonate, and aconitic acid. By enabling accurate diagnosis at least six months earlier, the highlighted metabolites may pave the way for improved diagnostics, ultimately contributing to timely disease management.