Exploring the contributing factors to agricultural growth in Kerala: an ARDL investigation of the dynamic relationships

Purpose This study aims to estimate the growth rate of total agricultural output as well as the output of major crops in Kerala. Additionally, we examine the factors that influence overall agricultural growth in the state. Design/methodology/approach Using data from 1970 to 2019, the study estimated CAGR of the total agricultural output and output of major crops in Kerala. Further, the ARDL model is estimated to investigate the factors influencing agricultural growth. Findings Agricultural growth in Kerala has been weak, with food crop production consistently declining. Although commercial crop production initially increased, it has now begun to drop. An econometric analysis identified rainfall, fertilizer consumption and gross cropped area as key long-term factors affecting agricultural output. While rainfall has a negative impact, both fertilizer consumption (0.5%) and gross cropped area (8.89%) positively influence production. Research limitations/implications This study uses proxy variable for agricultural output due to the unavailability of continuous data. Lack of time series data on certain variables such as agricultural credit, public investment and subsidy expenditure limited the inclusion of additional explanatory variables. Originality/value Several studies have examined various aspects of Kerala’s agricultural sector. However, to the best of our knowledge, no research has focused on identifying the key factors driving agricultural growth in the state.