Post-Disaster Recovery Effectiveness: Assessment and Prediction of Coordinated Development in the Wenchuan Earthquake-Stricken Areas

Post-disaster rapid recovery and reconstruction, along with the evaluation of these efforts, are crucial for affected areas. They not only facilitate the swift repair of vulnerable systems but also reflect whether the recovery work has enhanced regional coordinated development. This is vital for achieving sustainable development post-reconstruction. This study addresses two main questions: (1) How effective were the recovery and reconstruction efforts in Mianyang, Deyang, and Guangyuan post-Wenchuan earthquake from a socio-economic–ecological system perspective? (2) What are the temporal and spatial changes in the Coordinated Development Index (CDI) of key affected counties? By constructing a framework to assess post-disaster coordinated development, this study utilized the entropy weight method and mean-variance method for the comprehensive weighting of evaluation indicators. The gray system prediction model G(1,1) was used to forecast the coordinated development levels of the three cities from 2019 to 2025. The findings reveal the following: (1) From 2005 to 2018, the CDI of Deyang, Guangyuan, and Mianyang showed a significant upward trend. Post-earthquake reconstruction measures like land planning and ecological restoration notably enhanced regional resilience and promoted coordinated development among social, economic, and ecological systems. (2) Despite overall success in reconstruction, disparities in development levels persist among Mianyang, Deyang, and Guangyuan. Predictions suggest that Deyang, Mianyang, and Guangyuan will achieve high-quality coordinated development in the next 5, 2, and 1 years, respectively. (3) Although significant achievements have been made through industrial restructuring, land reuse planning, and ecological restoration, more precise disaster prevention and mitigation strategies are needed to foster coordinated development among social, economic, and ecological systems. In summary, this study evaluates the post-disaster recovery effects in the hardest-hit areas of the Wenchuan earthquake and forecasts future development, providing a reference for similar post-disaster reconstruction areas in assessing and predicting coordinated development.