Does agnosticism precede atheism? Investigating the question in the context of Western European countries

Nonbelief is increasing in secular countries. Among the nonreligious/nonbelievers (hereafter nonbelievers), agnostics differ from atheists in terms of underlying psychological characteristics. Can agnosticism be considered as a transient stance from religion to atheism? Using European Values Study (EVS) data from 18 Western European countries, we investigated this question both cross-sectionally and across three waves (EVS 1999 to 2017). Cross-sectionally, in more secular societies, the proportion of atheists among the nonbelievers is higher – and agnostics’ lower. Across time, from 1999 to 2017, in most countries, the proportion of agnostics among nonbelievers decreased – and inversely the one of atheists increased, a pattern that followed secularization and seemed common across age groups. Nevertheless, the proportion of agnostics remains important. These findings suggest that the more secularism/nonbelief becomes socially normative, the more people become or ‘come out’ as clear atheists. Agnosticism seems partly a transient convictional status from faith to atheism and partly a sui-generis category.