Cumulative Energy Demand and Global Warming Potential of metals and minerals production: Assessment, projections and mitigation options

This study estimates the cumulative energy demand and global warming potential for 50 metals and 22 non-metallic commodities, incorporating uncertainties through three distinct assessments: low, high, and median, based on the Ecoinvent 3.8 database. The results show that the cumulative energy demand of these commodities represents between 11.3% and 18.2% of global primary energy consumption in 2019, with a median estimate of 13.8%. Similarly, the global warming potential accounts for 13.4%–19.1% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the same year, with a median estimate of 17.7%. Iron and steel, aluminum, and cement production emerge as the dominant contributors, responsible for approximately 80% of cumulative energy demand and 90% of GHG emissions across all scenarios. The study also quantifies the potential environmental benefits of enhanced recycling and the accelerated adoption of electric arc furnace technology for steel production in China. These measures can potentially reduce global cumulative energy demand by up to 2.1% and 1.6% respectively and GHG emissions by up to 1.8% and 0.9%. The analysis further examines the energy and climate impacts of mining requirements for a clean energy transition, using IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario. Considering current extraction technologies, the production surplus associated with this scenario could increase global cumulative energy demand by 1.1% and global warming potential by 0.6%. However, these increases would be outweighed by the corresponding reductions in fossil fuel consumption. The paper concludes by discussing the sectors and regions most associated with the environmental burdens of metal and mineral production and highlight key strategies for mitigating these impacts. • We estimate the energy demand and GWP from producing 50 metals and 22 non-metals. • Iron & steel, cement and aluminum account for ∼80% of energy demand and ∼90% of GWP. • Mitigation from recycling and technology shifts is significant but not sufficient. • The rise linked with the production of transition materials is just a few percent. • This increase is more than compensated by the reduction in fossil fuel production.