Understanding farmers' attitudes and aspirations for tree-cover restoration in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania

Restoring tree cover to meet international commitments requires context-sensitive approaches, such as agroforestry in rural landscapes, that address local concerns and motivations. This study investigates farmers' attitudes and aspirations for tree-cover restoration in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania, using a novel combination of participatory future farm scenarios and sentiment analysis. Unlike traditional applications of sentiment analysis on large online datasets, we demonstrate its utility in understanding attitudes in rural contexts, complementing participatory engagement efforts. We explore variables influencing smallholders' aspirations for their future farms, with a focus on agroforestry systems, and examine the impact of gender and wellbeing on perceptions and attitudes towards agroforestry and existing natural forests in the landscape. Our findings indicate positive attitudes towards agroforestry, particularly when it provides direct, tangible benefits. However, forests were viewed negatively due to concerns about resource access and human-wildlife interactions. Men associated tree planting with income opportunities, while women favoured scattered trees for subsistence needs. These results underscore the need for inclusive, gender-sensitive restoration practices that align with local preferences. By tailoring restoration strategies to specific local aspirations, concerns and motivations, we can enhance the effectiveness, equity, and acceptance of tree-cover restoration initiatives. • Smallholders were more positive about agroforestry but more negative about forests. • Negative sentiments relate to resource access constraints and human-wildlife conflict. • Positive sentiments relate to resources, climate and farm border management. • Men are more positive towards agroforestry than women and desire more trees.