The spirit of the times: historical conditions and market-seeking FDI strategies by U.S. alcohol firms

Abstract Market-seeking foreign direct investment (FDI) remains central for firms to expand their global presence and seize opportunities abroad. However, existing research often focuses on immediate or near-term drivers related to firms’ market-seeking FDI strategies, and thus neglects the valuable insights a historical perspective can provide. To address this gap, we draw insights from imprinting theory and propose a framework theorizing the dual-layered imprinting of historical conditions stemming from both extreme historical experiences and founding conditions. Using the U.S. alcohol industry as a research context, we employ a mixed-methods approach, integrating quantitative and qualitative techniques. Our findings reveal that firms’ experiences during extreme anti-alcohol conditions, such as Prohibition, positively correlate with regulation-driven market-seeking FDI, while firms founded in more pro-alcohol periods prioritize speed-driven market-seeking FDI. Moreover, we identify how unrelated diversification, a strategy consistent with the anti-alcohol imprint but inconsistent with the pro-alcohol imprint, affects the relationship between historical imprints and FDI strategies through imprint amplification or decay. Our qualitative analyses elucidate the role of founders’ and leaders’ strategic decision-making in reinforcing the mechanisms through which historical conditions shape FDI strategy. This longitudinal framework provides insights into imprint formation, transmission, and manifestation, accounting for contextual variations and implications for FDI strategy.