Marital status transition probabilities in Indonesia: based on the 2007 and 2014 Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS)

Abstract This paper contributes to the first calculation of marital status transition probabilities in Indonesia using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), a longitudinal survey conducted since 1993. The sample consists of individuals aged 15 and over in Wave-4 (2007) who were re-interviewed in Wave-5 (2014). The study calculates transition probabilities for five marital status changes: from never married to married, married to widowed, married to divorced, widowed to remarried, and divorced to remarried. The analysis is conducted based on age, education, geography (urban-rural residence and islands), and key social markers (ethnicity and religion), with sex as a control variable across all dimensions. Among others, it concludes that the transition probability from never married to married is consistently higher among females than males, regardless of education, geography, and social markers, with an exception among the group—aged 35 years old and over. Once married, most individuals remain married, though some experience a shift in marital status, transitioning to either widowed or divorced. The transition probability from married to widowed increases with age, making it significantly more common than divorce among individuals aged 50 years and over. This pattern—that transition probability is higher to widowed than to divorced- is consistent across both sexes, all education levels, geography, and social markers. After becoming widowed or divorced, some individuals remarry. However, the likelihood of remarrying differs importantly depending on the previous marital status, with the transition probability from divorced to remarried consistently higher than from widowed to remarried, irrespective of sex, age, education, geography, and social markers.