Toward Sustainable Urban Development: Exploring the Polycentric Transition of Chinese Cities Through Nighttime Lights

Studying urban spatial structure (USS) is crucial for advancing sustainable urban development. This study examined the USS of 292 cities in China from 2007 to 2022 using nighttime lights and the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index. The determinants of USS were analyzed through a fixed-effects spatial Durbin model based on the theoretical framework of influencing factors. The findings revealed a nationwide trend toward a polycentric USS across various city types. Economic growth drove the transformation from a monocentric to a polycentric USS. Additionally, the development of postal infrastructure promoted a shift toward a polycentric USS. Transportation infrastructure, industrial structure, residential consumption level, and government intervention were pivotal in shaping a monocentric USS. Regarding spatial spillover effects, transportation infrastructure, industrial structure, and economic growth fostered a polycentric tendency in neighboring cities, whereas government intervention reinforced a monocentric tendency.