Northward Expanding Variation of Neo-Chinese-Style Landscape Influenced by Bamboos in China Under Climate Change Based on MaxEnt Model

Bamboos, as imperative vegetations in Chinese traditional gardens, also significantly influenced the recently originated Neo-Chinese-style landscape in China, and their habitat ranges have been profoundly impacted by global climate warming. Current studies on the distribution dynamics of bamboo reveal existent gaps in assessing the suitable distribution area of Neo-Chinese-style landscapes. In this study, we calculated the habitat ranges of two widely distributed bamboo genera (Phyllostachys and Bambusa) based on the optimal MaxEnt model, predicted their future (2050s, 2070s and 2090s) distributions under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), and assessed the suitable distribution area of the Neo-Chinese-style landscape according to the distribution union of two bamboo genera. The results showed that the optimal MaxEnt model exhibited high evaluation indices (AUC > 0.90) for the two bamboo genera. The habitat ranges of bamboo genera were significantly influenced by the minimum temperature of the coldest month and would expand northwardly in the future. The suitable distribution area of Neo-Chinese-style landscapes covered about 71.3% cities of China, which would expand 5.9%–8.7% of cities and 10%–18.7% of cities under the SSP1-2.6 climate scenario and the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, respectively. The suitable distributions are mainly located in the southeast part of China. This study advanced our understanding of the restriction of bamboo to the distribution of the Neo-Chinese-style landscape and provided valuable insights and a scientific basis for landscape construction in different areas of China.