Assessment of Wind and Solar Capacity Credibility Under Extreme Weather Conditions

At present, credible capacity is widely used to measure the contribution of wind and solar resources to the redundancy of the power system. However, the increasingly frequent extreme weather in recent years has seriously affected the accuracy of credible capacity calculation based on typical scenarios, and it is urgent to scientifically evaluate the credible capacity of wind and solar under extreme weather. This article proposes a credibility assessment method for wind and solar capacity under extreme weather. This method uses the kmeans++ clustering algorithm to mine extreme weather scenarios in massive meteorological sample information, takes wind power and photovoltaic output and load under extreme weather scenarios as input data, and realizes the credibility assessment of wind and solar capacity under extreme weather scenarios through the process of multi-dimensional copula function modeling, sampling, and reliability calculation. The article verifies the effectiveness of the method by taking a certain actual regional power grid as an example, and compares the credibility of wind and solar capacity under extreme weather scenarios with typical scenarios such as quarters. The difference of 50% shows that it is of great significance for ensuring the security and planning of power systems.