Business cycle asynchrony in European countries: a nonlinear panel data analysis

This study employs a Nonlinear Asynchronous Multilevel Smooth Transition Panel (NAML-STP) model to investigate the asynchrony of economic cycles among European Union countries. Utilizing GDP data from 27 EU nations, the research reveals significant nonlinear characteristics and sequential differences in the timing of exiting economic contraction phases. The findings highlight the importance of understanding economic cycle asynchrony for global economic governance, risk prevention, and policy formulation.