Evaluation of Linear and Non-Linear Programming Strategies for Hydrothermal Planning Using Reference Curves

In recent years, the Brazilian electricity generation mix has changed due to the reduction in hydroelectric power plant storage capacity and also to increased demand. Current operational and expansion planning models face limitations as they do not fully incorporate uncertainties associated with the increase in intermittent energy sources, demand, distributed generation, fluctuations in oil prices, and economic variations. This article presents a methodology that utilizes seasonally adjusted reference curves for each Energy Equivalent Reservoir (EER) to maintain reservoir levels within an ideal operational range. Through a comparison between linear and non-linear approaches, the objective of this study is to evaluate the behavior of applying reference curves in long-term planning, with the aim of ensuring the operational security of reservoirs.