Generation of Synthetic Series for Hydroelectric Plants in Brazilian Interconnected System by Metaheuristic

This article aims to explain the use of the intelligent technique known as Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm for generating synthetic series for hydroelectric plants which belong to the Brazilian interconnected system. Thus, the metaheuristic is responsible for determining the best coefficients as well as the optimal order for each month which may represent historical data based on an optimization problem whose objective function is to minimize the standard deviation of errors between the real and estimated water inflow values. Finally, with the optimal coefficients and order, the next step is to generate synthetic flow series considering a period of five years ahead, guaranteeing forecasts of inflow energy which are coherent with the historical data. The simulations were carried out considering Itaipu, Belo Monte, Tucuruí and Comp PAF-MOX hydroelectric plants whose results show the applicability of the Arithmetic Optimization Algorithm for generating flow scenarios allowing a convincing energy planning.