Multi-scenario simulation of land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, China

Abstract The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) serves as a crucial ecological barrier in China and Asia, exerting profound influences on global climate and biodiversity conservation. Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred as Gannan Prefecture), located on the northeastern edge of the QXP, represents a fragile alpine ecosystem in which land use change significantly impacts ecosystem services (ESs). This study established a comprehensive framework, utilizing the Patch-generating Land-Use Simulation (PLUS) model coupled with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to predict land use patterns under the natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario for Gannan Prefecture by 2030 and evaluated four critical ESs: habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), and carbon storage (CS). The primary aim is to elucidate the impacts of dynamic land use change on ESs. The results revealed that, from 2000 to 2020, HQ exhibited minimal variation, whereas CS experienced a slight decline. Conversely, WY and SR showed significant improvements. Under the natural development scenario, construction land was projected to increase by 4247.74 hm 2 , primarily at the expense of forest land. The cultivated land protection scenario anticipated an increase in farmland by 2634.36 hm 2 , which was crucial for maintaining food security. The ecological protection scenario predicted a notable expansion of forest land, accompanied by a restrained development rate of construction land. The ecological protection scenario also showed an increase in the ecosystem service index (ESI), encompassing 26.07% of the region. Forest land and grassland emerged as the primary contributors to ESs, while construction land substantially impacted WY. Water bodies exhibited minimal contribution to ESs. This study enhanced the understanding of land use change impacts on ESs in fragile and high-altitude ecosystems, offering essential theoretical frameworks and practical direction for forthcoming ecological policy and regional planning endeavors.