Impact of climate change and land use/cover change on water yield in the Liaohe River Basin, Northeast China

Abstract The Liaohe River Basin (LRB) in Northeast China, a critical agricultural and industrial zone, has faced escalating water resource pressures in recent decades due to rapid urbanization, intensified land use changes, and climate variability. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield and its driving factors is essential for sustainable water resource management in this ecologically sensitive region. This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of water yield in the LRB (dividing into six sub-basins from east to west: East Liaohe River Basin (ELRB), Taizi River Basin (TRB), Middle Liaohe River Basin (MLRB), West Liaohe River Basin (WLRB), Xinkai River Basin (XRB), and Wulijimuren River Basin (WRB)) from 1993 to 2022, with a focus on the impacts of climate change and land use cover change (LUCC). Results revealed that the LRB had an average annual precipitation of 483.15 mm, with an average annual water yield of 247.54 mm, both showing significant upward trend over the 30-a period. Spatially, water yield demonstrated significant heterogeneity, with higher values in southeastern sub-basins and lower values in northwestern sub-basins. The TRB exhibited the highest water yield due to abundant precipitation and favorable topography, while the WRB recorded the lowest water yield owing to arid conditions and sparse vegetation. Precipitation played a significant role in shaping the annual fluctuations and total volume of water yield, with its variability exerting substantially greater impacts than actual evapotranspiration (AET) and LUCC. However, LUCC, particularly cultivated land expansion and grassland reduction, significantly reshaped the spatial distribution of water yield by modifying surface runoff and infiltration patterns. This study provides critical insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield in the LRB, emphasizing the synergistic effects of climate change and land use change, which are pivotal for optimizing water resource management and advancing regional ecological conservation.