The Fastest Path to Discovering the Second Electromagnetic Counterpart to a Gravitational Wave Event

Abstract The discovery of a second electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave event represents a critical goal in the field of multi-messenger astronomy. In order to determine the optimal strategy for achieving this goal, we perform comprehensive simulations comparing two potential paths forward: continuing the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run, O4, versus temporarily shutting down the detectors for upgrades before beginning the next observing run, O5. Our simulations incorporate current O4 instrument sensitivities and duty cycles, as well as projected configurations for O5, while accounting for variables such as binary neutron star merger rates, system properties, viewing angles, dust extinction, and kilonova (KN) observables. Our results indicate that a KN discovery would occur <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mn>12</mml:mn> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>5</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>125</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>253</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> days (middle 50% interval) sooner in O5 compared to O4, suggesting that extending O4 would lead to faster discovery if the shutdown period between runs is &gt;4 months. Moreover, for 88% of our simulations, continuing O4 results in earlier KN discovery when compared to the expected two-year shutdown between O4 and O5. Given these findings and the critical importance of avoiding a &gt;10 yr gap between first and second electromagnetic counterpart discoveries, we suggest LVK consider extending O4 operations for as long as feasible prior to shutting down for critical upgrades.