Estimation of the risk of generation curtailment of renewable energy sources in the perspective of the development of the Polish power system in 2030–2040

The article, using Poland as an example, presents an estimate of the risk of generation curtailment in renewable sources, which results from too high energy supply in days and hours with low demand. The years 2030–2040 and various variants of the development of PV generation, onshore and offshore wind generation were considered. It was shown that unless the energy transformation causes the expected increase in demand for electricity in sectors such as heating, transport, metallurgy and the chemical industry, the scale of curtailment will increase, which in turn may result in reduced investments in new sources, especially in the PV sector. The development of energy storage technologies may reduce this real risk.