Land Use Transition and Regional Development Patterns Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China

This study evaluates the spatial–temporal evolution of land use intensity and regional development under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) through prefecture-level projections in China (2020–2050). This study integrates the population–development–environment model with back propagation (BP) neural networks, a supervised learning algorithm, to analyze how differentiated development trajectories reshape land systems. Results reveal distinct pathways: SSP5 (conventional development) and SSP1 (sustainability) achieve high-income thresholds by 2025/2028 with intensive land development, while SSP3 (fragmentation) risks stagnation post-2037 accompanied by inefficient land use. Spatial analysis identifies persistent dualism across the Hu Huanyong Line—83.6% of urban land expansion concentrates in eastern regions, whereas western areas exhibit 56% lower land productivity. By 2050, regional land use efficiency differentials (0.3–4.3% Gross Domestic Product/capita growth) highlight challenges in balancing urban agglomeration and ecological conservation. These findings provide empirical evidence for optimizing land allocation policies during China’s economic transition.