A Comprehensive Approach to Identifying the Supply and Demand of Urban Park Cultural Ecosystem Services in the Megalopolis Area of Shanghai, China

Urban parks are vital public spaces that provide cultural ecosystem services (CESs) that enhance the well-being of city dwellers. As the demand for CESs has greatly increased, the imbalance between CES supply and demand has become prominent. Accurately identifying whether the supply of CESs meets the demand supports urban park planning and management. However, the CES supply–demand gap lies not only in the quantitative resource deficits, but also in the spatial mismatch between supply and demand. At present, scientific quantification methods for urban park CES supply and demand that comprehensively consider both quantitative and spatial relationships remain inadequate. To fill this gap, we propose an integrated framework that combines spatial and quantitative analysis to identify the supply and demand of urban park CESs, using Shanghai as the study area. The framework consists of three major steps: (1) mapping the CES supply and demand of urban parks; (2) identifying the CES supply–demand relationship by combining quantitative analysis through bivariate mapping with spatial analysis using spatial statistics; (3) categorizing the supply–demand relationship into four scenarios based on quantity balance and spatial matching, with three corresponding planning proposals. The results show that 136 sub-districts belong to the quantity balance and space matching type, while 79 sub-districts belonging to the imbalanced quantities type, including 41 belonging to the quantity imbalance and space mismatching type. Notably, only 15 sub-districts face a situation where supply is less than demand. Our findings provide a solid basis for identifying key areas of CES supply–demand conflict and prioritizing targeted planning interventions. This approach not only improves the efficiency of CES provision, but also addresses the growing demand for high-quality CESs in rapidly urbanizing regions.