Modelling the future distribution of solitary wasps (Anoplius viaticus L ., 1758, Ammophila sabulosa L., 1758) in relation to CMIP6 climate scenarios

Global climate change has become a trend and a crucial factor aff ecting biodiversity and species distribution.Climate change models are valuable tools in projecting the distribution of indicator animal species under diff erent climate scenarios.Solitary wasps Anoplius viaticus (Linnaeus, 1758) and Ammophila sabulosa (Linnaeus, 1758) prefer arid habitats, which makes them ideal model objects for investigating changes in faunal structure under global climate change.Both species exhibit ecological characteristics typical of their families.The study of these wasps carried out using the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model and the SSP245 scenario showed that both species occupy the Transpalaearctic range.The range change projections for these species show a similar trend of expansion throughout the Holarctic, with potential dispersal into the Australian and New Zealand zoogeographic regions.The AUC value for both species was 0.83, indicating an 80 % probability of accurate prediction of the species' occurrence within the projected range.We analyzed 19 bioclimatic parameters.The variables bio_14, bio_2, and bio_7 are of particular signifi cance with regard to the potential range expansion.The main variables for Anoplius viaticus and Ammophila sabulosa are the change in mean diurnal variance (permutation coeffi cient is 11.7 and 18.2, respectively) and temperature annual variance (permutation coefficient is 14.9 and 16.1, respectively).The other 16 variables are less signifi cant.Both species have been shown to occupy a broad range and have the potential to further expand their range and shift it northward.Insect species with similar biological and ecological characteristics, despite diff erent trophic preferences and systematic classifi cation, yield similar projections, thereby enabling either species to serve as an indicator for the same objective., . , , , .