Collapse Fragility Analysis of RC Frame Structures Considering Capacity Uncertainty

To analyze the impact of capacity uncertainty on the seismic collapse fragility of reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures, a fragility analysis framework based on seismic reliability methods is proposed. First, incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) curves are plotted by IDA under a group of natural seismic waves. Subsequently, collapse points are identified based on recommendations from relevant standards, yielding the probability distribution of the maximum inter-story drift ratios (MIDRs) at collapse points. Then, the distribution of the MIDRs under various intensity measures (IMs) of artificial seismic waves is calculated by using the fractional exponential moments-based maximum entropy method (FEM-MEM). Next, the structural failure probability is determined based on the combined performance index (CPI), and a seismic collapse fragility curve is plotted using the four-parameter shifted generalized lognormal distribution (SGLD) model. The results indicate that the collapse probability is lower considering the capacity uncertainty. Compared to deterministic MIDR limits of 1/25 and 1/50, the median values of the structure’s collapse resistance increased by 13.2% and 87.3%, respectively. Additionally, the failure probability obtained by considering the capacity uncertainty is lower than the results based on deterministic limits alone. These findings highlight the importance of considering capacity uncertainty in seismic risk assessments of RC frame structures.