Study on Mine Earthquake Prediction Based on Numerical Simulation of Rock Fracture Evolution

ABSTRACT The deformation and instability of overlying strata is the root cause of roof dynamic disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to study the geomechanical behavior of overlying strata and the evolution law of three‐dimensional fracture morphology for preventing rock burst disasters and identifying the source of mine earthquakes. To solve the problem of strong mine earthquakes in Shilawusu 1208 working face (SLWS–1208) during mining, this paper takes the mechanical mechanism of the “O–X” fracture morphology of overlying strata as the starting point to discuss the deformation, instability, and failure characteristics of overlying strata and the occurrence mechanism of mine earthquake. First, a fine stope model is established according to the geology and rock strata distribution of SLWS–1208 working face. Then, using the cohesive element analysis technique and the proposed “O–X” fracture mechanics model, numerical simulation experiments are carried out to explore the spatial‐temporal evolution laws of overlying strata migration and rock fracture. Finally, the mechanical analysis results are compared with the on‐site microseismic monitoring data, and the prediction of mine seismic events and the quantitative evaluation of mine earthquake magnitude are realized.