Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset

Abstract The onset time of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) is widely recognized as being closely related to the distribution of summer rainfall belts in East Asia. This study examines the sub-seasonal prediction bias of SCSSM onset and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes using the hindcasts from the ECMWF sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The system can accurately predict the onset time two pentads in advance. As the lead time increases, the predicted monsoon onset time tends to be later than the observations. When the forecast lead time exceeds 15 days, the inaccuracies in the northward propagation of tropical convection result in the absence of initial atmospheric constraints. This lack of initial constraints, along with their influence on the boundary forcing over the Bay of Bengal, may lead to a late onset bias of the SCSSM in this forecasting system.

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Publication Details

Journal
Environmental Research Communications
Published
2025-02-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adb9c2
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset

Zhuoqi He, Yanan Duan, Xue Han, Xingrong Chen et al.
Environmental Research Communications
Climate variability and models
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Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset

Zhuoqi He, Yanan Duan, Xue Han, Xingrong Chen, Tao Feng, Boqi Liu, Lanning Wang, Fei Liu, Licheng Feng, Quanhong Jiang
article en

Abstract

Abstract The onset time of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) is widely recognized as being closely related to the distribution of summer rainfall belts in East Asia. This study examines the sub-seasonal prediction bias of SCSSM onset and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes using the hindcasts from the ECMWF sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The system can accurately predict the onset time two pentads in advance. As the lead time increases, the predicted monsoon onset time tends to be later than the observations. When the forecast lead time exceeds 15 days, the inaccuracies in the northward propagation of tropical convection result in the absence of initial atmospheric constraints. This lack of initial constraints, along with their influence on the boundary forcing over the Bay of Bengal, may lead to a late onset bias of the SCSSM in this forecasting system.

Environmental Research CommunicationsVol. 7(3)
Hohai University (CN), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Beijing Normal University (CN), Institute of Oceanology (CN), South China Sea Institute Of Oceanology (CN), Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (CN), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CN), National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (CN), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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