Significance of the ARIMA epidemiological modeling to predict the rate of HIV and AIDS in the Kumba Health District of Cameroon
The ARIMA model was found to be independent of errors and a perfect fit, with a high R-squared value of 0.764 and a <i>p</i>-value of 0.410, indicating that the model's predictions aligned well with the observed data. The model predicted an increase in the number of HIV incidence cases over the coming years (2023-2026), potentially suggesting a worsening situation. However, it is important to interpret these predictions with caution and consider other factors that may influence the incidence of HIV in reality.
Authors
- Maurice Marcel Sandeu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6780-5394)
- Elvis Asangbeng Tanue (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8395-6504)
- Jude Dzevela Kong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7557-5672)
- Patrick Jolly Ngono Ema
- Dickson Shey Nsagha (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7519-0991)
- Ginyu Innocentia Kwalar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2222-8105)
- Fabrice Chethkwo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-8313-1876)
- Arrey Emmanuel Besong
- Odette Dzemo Kibu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9422-1845)
- Nkweteyim Denis
- Onduo Moise
- Ayana Gelan
- Besong Agbor Obinkem
- Valentine Ndze Ngum
Institutions
- Jimma University (ET)
- University of Buea (CM)
- York University (CA)
- Response Biomedical (Canada) (CA)
- Artificial Intelligence in Medicine (Canada) (CA)
- University of Ngaoundéré (CM)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Frontiers in Public Health
- Published
- 2025-02-24
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1526454
- Citations
- 5
- Primary Topic
- HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 15.66