INSPIRE game: integration of vulnerability into impact-based forecasting of urban floods

Abstract. Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and flash floods inflict great damage on lives and property in cities. Precipitation forecasts help predict extreme events; however, they have limitations in anticipating the impacts of extreme events. Impact-based forecasts (IBFs), when integrated with information on hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, can anticipate impacts and suggest emergency decisions. In this study, we present a serious game experiment, called the INSPIRE game, which evaluates the roles of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability in a flash flood situation triggered by an EPE. Participants make decisions in two rounds based on the extreme precipitation and flood that occurred over Mumbai on 26 July 2005. In the first round, participants make decisions on the forthcoming EPE scheduled for later in the afternoon. In the second round, they make decisions on the compound events of extreme precipitation, river floods, and high tide. Decisions are collected from 123 participants, predominantly researchers, PhDs and Masters students. Our results show that participant use of information to make decisions was based on the severity of the situation. A larger proportion of participants used precipitation forecast and exposure to make correct decisions in the first round, while they used precipitation forecast and vulnerability information in the second round. Higher levels of education and research experience enabled participants to evaluate the severity of the event and use the appropriate information set presented to them. Additionally, given the choice between qualitative and quantitative information on rainfall, 64 % of the participants preferred qualitative information to quantitative information. We also discuss the relevance and potential of vulnerability integration into IBFs using inferences derived from the serious game.