Integrating adaptation pathways and Ostrom’s framework for sustainable governance of social-ecological systems in a changing world

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway (DAPP) maps are used to plan management decisions in contexts of high uncertainty, such as those driven by environmental changes affecting critical assets. Recent discussions emphasize their relevance for addressing complex common-pool resource challenges, where diverse species, actors, and ecosystem services are intricately connected. However, designing DAPPs for such multifaceted social-ecological systems (SES) is challenging due to the extensive range of potential adaptation options. This study presents a general method to address these challenges by leveraging Ostrom's theoretical frameworks for the governance of common pool resources-the Institutional Analysis & Development framework (IADF), the social-ecological systems framework (SESF), and the coupled infrastructure systems framework (CISF). These frameworks were used to design nested DAPP maps that structure a large number of adaptation actions across multiple levels of institutional arrangement (operational, collective-choice, constitutional), and then develop a mathematical model to analyze the dynamic robustness of a SES across all potential pathways. The method was applied to predict and understand DAPP maps for supporting the collective management of hedgerow networks delivering diverse ecosystem services. DAPP maps for two SES were compared-one rural and one peri-urban-in France's agro-ecological landscapes of the Auvergne region. We further modeled the impact of climate change on hedgerows characterized by different size and species richness, revealing the sensitivity of these DAPP maps to transit between nine nested institutional arrangements. We discuss the methodological and practical implications of this approach for managing SES characterized by greater diversities of interconnected species, actors, and ecosystem services, highlighting its strengths and challenges in guiding adaptation under deep uncertainty.