Dealing with guns: investigating the spatial attraction of gun dealers on localized gun violence

Abstract Objectives Test the spatial relationship between the locations of federally licensed firearms dealers (FFLs) and gun violence using shuttered FFLs as a counterfactual. Methods Using a quasi-experimental design, we evaluate the proximity of gun violence to (a) dealers and (b) the spatial footprints of former dealers. The locations of violence incidents between 2019 and 2021 in Los Angeles, CA, Dallas, TX, and Philadelphia, PA are analyzed against dealer locations using street Network Cross K methods. Results There is a robust attractive effect of dealers on gun violence within 3000 feet in two of the three cities, largely driven by the effect of dealers on violence in disadvantaged areas. The locations of former gun dealers did not uniformly fail to attract gun violence, however, as would be expected if FFLs were causally associated with the distribution of gun violence in cities. Conclusions The findings on the spatial attraction of gun violence to the locations of former gun dealers are heterogeneous across sites, leading to mixed support for a causal spatial association between gun dealers and gun violence. Limitations of using former dealers as the counterfactual include defining former dealers and the small numbers of former dealers in cities.