Assessing Carbon Emissions’ Impact on Drought in China’s Arid Regions: Cross-Lagged and Spatial Models

Global warming is projected to intensify the impact of droughts. Although numerous studies have examined carbon emissions and droughts, few have explored their interactive effects or the spatial spillover effects of carbon emissions on droughts. To address this gap, we use panel data from 2012 to 2021 for China’s arid, semi-arid, and potentially semi-arid regions in the future. First, we estimate city-level carbon emissions data for the study areas based on nighttime light data. We then apply a Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model to investigate the temporal causal relationship between carbon emissions and droughts. Finally, we employ a dynamic spatial Durbin model with spatial and temporal fixed effects, incorporating one-period-lagged carbon emissions to assess both direct and spatial spillover effects on droughts. The results show that carbon emissions have a statistically significant cross-temporal and spatial impact on droughts, with both current and one-period-lagged carbon emissions exhibiting substantial spatial spillover effects on drought conditions. This research offers valuable insights for cities seeking collaborative approaches to mitigate both carbon emissions and drought risks.