China's greenhouse gas budget during 2000–2023

National greenhouse gas (GHG) budget, including CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O has increasingly become a topic of concern in international climate governance. China is paying increasing attention to reducing GHG emissions and increasing land sinks to effectively mitigate climate change. Accurate estimates of GHG fluxes are crucial for monitoring progress toward mitigating GHG emissions in China. This study used comprehensive methods, including emission factor methods, process-based models, atmospheric inversions, and data-driven models, to estimate the long-term trends of GHG sources and sinks from all anthropogenic and natural sectors in China's mainland during 2000-2023, and produced an up-to-date China GHG Budget dataset (CNGHG). The total gross emissions of the three GHGs show a 3-fold increase from 5.0 (95% CI: 4.9-5.1) Gt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq yr<sup>-1</sup> (in 2000) to 14.3 (95% CI: 13.8-14.8) Gt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq yr<sup>-1</sup> (in 2023). CO<sub>2</sub> emissions represented 81.8% of the GHG emissions in 2023, while 12.7% and 5.5% were for CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O, respectively. As the largest CO<sub>2</sub> source, the energy sector contributed 87.4% CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. In contrast, the agriculture, forestry and other land use sector was the largest sector of CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O, representing 50.1% and 66.3% emissions, respectively. Moreover, China's terrestrial ecosystems serve as a net CO<sub>2</sub> sink (1.0 Gt CO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>, 95% CI: 0.2-1.9 Gt CO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>) during 2012 to 2021, equivalent to an average of 14.3% of fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Our GHG emission estimates showed a general consistency with national GHG inventories, with gridded and sector-specific estimates of GHG fluxes over China, providing the basis for curtailing GHG emissions for each region and sector.

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Publication Details

Journal
National Science Review
Published
2025-02-22
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaf069
Citations
12
Primary Topic
Geochemistry and Geochronology of Asian Mineral Deposits
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
37.57
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article

China's greenhouse gas budget during 2000–2023

Shilong Piao, Xu Yue, Hongtao Duan, Shengji Luan et al.
12 citations
National Science Review
Geochemistry and Geochronology of Asian Mineral Deposits
37.57
article

China's greenhouse gas budget during 2000–2023

Shilong Piao, Xu Yue, Hongtao Duan, Shengji Luan, Weimin Ju, Yuzhong Zhang, Qiuan Zhu, Lishan Ran, Haicheng Zhang, Jing Wei, Zhangcai Qin, Songbai Hong, Xiaosheng Xia, Minqi Liang, Fei Jiang, Tingting Li, Wenping Yuan, Xu Wen Zhao, Jiangzhou Xia, Xiangjun Tian, Xiaoxia Lü, Dan Li, Yilong Wang, Wen Zhang, Fei Teng, Ziyang Lou, Yuanyi Gao, Xuhui Wang, Lijun Yu, Lulu Shen, Ling Huang
article en
12 citations

Abstract

National greenhouse gas (GHG) budget, including CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O has increasingly become a topic of concern in international climate governance. China is paying increasing attention to reducing GHG emissions and increasing land sinks to effectively mitigate climate change. Accurate estimates of GHG fluxes are crucial for monitoring progress toward mitigating GHG emissions in China. This study used comprehensive methods, including emission factor methods, process-based models, atmospheric inversions, and data-driven models, to estimate the long-term trends of GHG sources and sinks from all anthropogenic and natural sectors in China's mainland during 2000-2023, and produced an up-to-date China GHG Budget dataset (CNGHG). The total gross emissions of the three GHGs show a 3-fold increase from 5.0 (95% CI: 4.9-5.1) Gt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq yr<sup>-1</sup> (in 2000) to 14.3 (95% CI: 13.8-14.8) Gt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq yr<sup>-1</sup> (in 2023). CO<sub>2</sub> emissions represented 81.8% of the GHG emissions in 2023, while 12.7% and 5.5% were for CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O, respectively. As the largest CO<sub>2</sub> source, the energy sector contributed 87.4% CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. In contrast, the agriculture, forestry and other land use sector was the largest sector of CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O, representing 50.1% and 66.3% emissions, respectively. Moreover, China's terrestrial ecosystems serve as a net CO<sub>2</sub> sink (1.0 Gt CO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>, 95% CI: 0.2-1.9 Gt CO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>) during 2012 to 2021, equivalent to an average of 14.3% of fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Our GHG emission estimates showed a general consistency with national GHG inventories, with gridded and sector-specific estimates of GHG fluxes over China, providing the basis for curtailing GHG emissions for each region and sector.

National Science ReviewVol. 12(4)
Tianjin Normal University (CN), Shandong University (CN), Sun Yat-sen University (CN), Hohai University (CN), Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (CN), Peking University (CN), Westlake University (CN), Urban Planning & Design Institute of Shenzhen (China) (CN), Peking University Shenzhen Hospital (CN), Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology (CN), Institute for Advanced Study (DE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (CN), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CN), Nanjing University (CN), University of Hong Kong (HK), Tsinghua University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Geochemistry and Geochronology of Asian Mineral Deposits
37.57
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