Returns to higher education by field of study in Thailand: comparative analysis of pre and post-COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose This study estimates returns to higher education across different fields in Thailand for 2019 and 2021, accounting for field selection endogeneity. The comparison offers insights into the impact of the pandemic and other economic shocks on the returns. Design/methodology/approach The study applies an econometric causal framework, integrating economic theory with empirical analysis using data from Thailand’s socioeconomic surveys in 2019 and 2021. A multinomial treatment effects model with sample selection correction is used to estimate the impact of different fields of study on income, accounting for selection both into higher education in different fields and into employment, addressing potential biases from ability sorting and sample selection. Findings The study finds variations in returns to education across fields. In 2019, teaching offered the highest returns on average, followed by healthcare. Social sciences, business and computer-related fields showed moderate returns, while the combined group of science, agriculture, engineering and architecture had non-significant returns, indicating a low weighted average across these diverse fields. In 2021, healthcare exhibited the highest return due to pandemic-driven demand. Across both years, controlling for occupation reduced the estimated returns by approximately 50%, highlighting the role of occupational status in mediating educational returns. Originality/value This study uniquely applies an econometric causal framework to analyze returns to higher education by field of study in Thailand. It offers insights for policymakers to align educational programs with labor market demand and emphasizes the importance of data-driven decisions in responding to disruptions.