Species distribution models and climate niche factors unravel the vulnerability of wild palm species (Arecaceae) to climate change in Burkina Faso (West Africa)

Climate change is recognized as one of the main drivers of plant species extinction, including palms. The objective of the present study is to assess the potential distribution and vulnerability of four multipurpose wild palm species, namely Borassus akeassii , Elaeis guineensis , Phoenix reclinata and Raphia sudanica , to climate change in Burkina Faso. Occurrence data (445) of these species were collected from fieldwork, literature and GBIF. The environmental layers consisting of bioclimatic data, soil variables, topographic position index and drainage density were obtained from different sources and linked to the occurrence data through the Maximum entropy algorithm. The models were validated and binarized. The presence maps were integrated into the CENFA framework to assess the vulnerability of each palm species. The results showed that precipitations and topographic position index were determinant variables for the four palm species distribution in western Burkina Faso. The potential distribution area of the four palm species in Burkina Faso varied between 10 and 15% of the surface area of the country. Climate change may induce a range expansion (up to 28.51%) or contraction (up to −16%) depending on the palm species, the global circulation models and climate scenarios. The climate change-caused vulnerability assessment indicated that Borassus akeassii is less vulnerable than Elaeis guineensis , Phoenix reclinata and Raphia sudanica in Western Burkina Faso. This study highlights the importance of considering the sensibility of palm species in assessing their vulnerability to global climate change. Moreover, the results call for more conservation actions on Elaeis guineensis , Phoenix reclinata and Raphia sudanica in Burkina Faso.