Assessment on water resource development and security in a traditional coal-producing region in northern China

• Water demand–supply gap generally showed a decreasing trend in the past decade. • Overexploitation of surface water was greater than that of groundwater. • Sustainable water development alleviated water shortage by more than 10% Water resource utilization and security evaluation is integral to the sustainable development of urban areas within a typical coal-producing region. Comprehensive assessments on water resource development are imperative for effective sustainable water planning. However, challenges arise due to mismatches in scale between data sets and methodologies. This study focused on Shanxi Province, a principal coal-producing region in northern China, and conducted an assessment on water resource development and security levels utilizing a dataset from 2011 to 2020 and a comprehensive index method. Future scenarios for water supply and demand were projected for the period of 2021–2035 using the STELLA model. The results showed that Shanxi Province experienced a prolonged process of water resource scarcity, with the supply–demand gap initially widening and subsequently narrowing during the period of 2011–2020. The mean annual development ratios for surface water and groundwater resource surpassed 86% and 34%, respectively. Across the eleven cities in the province, extents of water scarcity exhibited subtle differences, with water shortages occupying 1.4–12.8% of the overall water supply. Proportions of poor, average and good water resource security status in the province were 27.3%, 63.6%, and 9.1%, respectively. Identified water security level indicators included surface water availability, urbanization rate, water consumption for secondary industry, water demand of tertiary industry, wastewater treatment rate, and water demand of eco-environmental systems. These indicators maintained major weights in the assessment on water security, reflecting the inadequacy of available water resource to satisfy supply requirements and to fulfill the demands of social and economic development. Among future forecast scenarios, the least severe water shortage was obtained in the scenario concerning sustainable water resource development. Compared to the baseline development scenario, the water shortage in 11 cities in the sustainable development scenario was attenuated, with an reduction ranging from 10.53% to 78.57%.